Presentation Details | With the U.S. economy only months away from setting the record for its longest expansion, and a forecast for slower economic growth in the coming years, Barclays Research has updated some of its research on estimating recession probabilities. Gapen will discuss this latest research, explore key predictive components for understanding recession risk, and examine how Barclays’ current recession prediction models are flashing some warning signs, but are not signaling imminent near-term risk of a recession.
Speaker biography | Michael Gapen is a managing director and head of U.S. economics research for Barclays. Based in New York, he leads a team that is responsible for the firm’s outlook for the U.S. economy and monetary and fiscal policy. Prior to taking on this role, Gapen was a senior U.S. economist and asset allocation strategist for Barclays, where in addition to the U.S. outlook he took on responsibility for forming the firm’s asset allocation views and marketing them to clients. Gapen joined Barclays in 2010 from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, where he was a section chief responsible for monetary and financial market analysis. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from Indiana University.